2025 NFL Power Rankings Based on Opening Betting Lines

Warning: these are not your usual NFL power rankings. Instead of opinion, I choose to use betting lines provided by the sportsbooks to fill out my NFL power rankings at SBD.

Sportsbooks released the opening betting odds for the 2025 NFL season immediately after the schedule was released on May 14. These spreads provide a great look into the expectations for each team this season, and I believe a great tool to use for power rankings. I have taken these spreads and calculated each team’s sum of spreads for all 17 games. This objective, quantitative measure is perfect for putting out some NFL power rankings as we prepare for the 2025 NFL season to kick off.

This differs slightly from a traditional power ranking, since it factors in NFL strength of schedule and is also rooted in numbers instead of pure speculation. Using a consistent method each year also allows us to draw trends based on past results, which you’ll see below. See where your favorite team ranks below!

2025 NFL Power Rankings | Super Bowl Favorites | Past Power Rankings | Trends from Power Rankings

To be clear, these are opening lines from the offseason for every week. We will not consider what the lines open at ahead of each week during the season. Obviously, with the way NFL spreads work – the favorite is giving up points – the more negative the ATS +/- is, the better the team is expected to be.

2025 NFL Power Rankings

This year’s NFL power rankings look much different than last year’s, and the range of my ATS +/- calculation is much wider than last year. Last year’s difference between the first and worst-ranked teams was just 162 points, whereas this year’s difference is 202 points. The top team listed in my 2025 NFL Power Rankings is last year’s AFC-runner up: the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is the only team in the NFL who opened as the favorite in all 17 games this season, and they have the best ATS +/- of any team since 2021 – it’s worth noting that team was the Chiefs and they lost in the AFC Championship.

The Bills stand well above the rest of the league in my NFL power rankings, having a ten-point advantage over the second-ranked Baltimore Ravens. It’s a long way to my third-ranked Kansas City Chiefs, who are 28.5 points back of Buffalo. We don’t see the first NFC team in my power rankings until #4, which is the reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles.

The worst-ranked team in the power rankings is the Cleveland Browns, who are well back of the second-worst team, the New Orleans Saints. There is a 12-point gap between 31st and 32nd.

Here are a handful of teams who see themselves in a very different position than last year:

• Denver Broncos: The Broncos shocked the football world last season, in what was Bo Nix’s first season in the league and Sean Payton’s second season in Denver. The team cleared house on defense and ate a massive cap hit to cut Russell Wilson. They ranked 30th in my power rankings last year, but come in at #8 this season. Denver added some big names on defense in free agency and had a very interesting draft.
• New England Patriots: The Patriots were ranked 32nd in my power rankings last year, and that ranking held pretty accurate as they finished with the fourth-worst record in the league. However, with Mike Vrabel taking over the head coaching position and an objectively solid draft class coming in, New England finds themselves ranked 14th this year – can also give some credit to their poor division.
• New York Jets: No team has fallen harder year-over-year than the Jets. New York had high hoped entering last season, as a healthy Aaron Rodgers was going to have them contending for the division title and potentially a Super Bowl. They entered last season as the 6th-ranked team in my power rankings, but enter this season 29th. Justin Fields may end up being more productive than Rodgers was last year, but their defensive strengths may have been a product of Robert Saleh, who was run out of town.
• Cleveland Browns: The Browns were expected to be a decent team last year, coming in at #15 in my power rankings. However, Deshaun Watson continued to fail miserably on the field and they ended up with the league’s second-worst record. As they prepare to enter the 2025 season with (probably) Joe Flacco under center, there is little optimism around their season. Cleveland comes in at #32 in this year’s power rankings.

Super Bowl Favorites from NFL Power Rankings

1) Buffalo Bills

After failing (again) to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs last season, the Bills at least come into the 2025 season as the #1-ranked team in my NFL power rankings. Their ATS +/- metric is getting boosted a fair bit by their lousy competition in the AFC East, along with the Ravens and Chiefs seeing their respective divisions grow tougher, but they do stand quite a bit ahead of the rest. It’s worth noting that Buffalo is seen as the favorite in their games against the Ravens and Chiefs this season. In order to get over the hump this year, the Bills will need second-year receiver Keon Coleman to add the big-play ability they thought they were getting in drafting him, and their big free agent-signing, Joey Bosa, will need to be much more than what they got from their Von Miller signing.

2) Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens suffered yet another agonizing playoff defeat last season, this time at the hands of the Bills. Lamar Jackson didn’t do himself any favors when it comes to the narrative that he can’t perform in the playoffs. Nonetheless, Baltimore is at the very least a regular season juggernaut. The key to unlocking their playoff potential may lie in the team growing more comfortable leaning on Derrick Henry when it gets cold outside.

3) Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs put together an incredible season considering the big injuries their offense suffered, and poor offensive line play. However, most people will only remember them getting demolished by the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Kansas City has reloaded on the offensive line and should return Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco to full health for Week 1. What’s most concerning for the Chiefs might be the rapid improvement the Broncos and Chargers saw last season.

4) Philadelphia Eagles

While the reigning Super Bowl champs are the top NFC team in my NFL power rankings, it’s a little surprising to see them down at #4. The Eagles did lose some key contributors on defense from last season, and also saw OC Kellen Moore leave for a head coaching position. But it’s still a very similar roster that will be tasked with defending their championship in 2025.

5) San Francisco 49ers

Perhaps the most underrated move of this offseason, in my opinion, was Robert Saleh returning to his role as defensive coordinator in San Francisco. The 49ers lost a number of big names from their defense, including Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga, and will need Saleh to get the most out of some new faces. San Francisco also parted ways with Deebo Samuel, who leaves behind a lot of touches and big-play capabilities. However, Christian McCaffrey is expected to be 100% healthy this season, which will be vital for a run-heavy Kyle Shanahan offense.

NFL Power Rankings from Previous Seasons

Trends from ATS +/- in Past Seasons

• A team from the top four in ATS +/- has won the Super Bowl in five of the last ten seasons
• A team from the top eight has won the Super Bowl each of the last seven seasons
• A team from the top four in ATS +/- has made the Super Bowl in eight of the last ten seasons
• At least one team from the top three in ATS +/- has missed the playoffs in nine of the last ten seasons – the 49ers, who were ranked #1, missed the playoffs last season
• At least two of the top five have missed the playoffs in six of the last ten seasons – the 49ers and Bengals, who were both top-four teams, missed the playoffs last season
• The team with the worst ATS +/- has won more than five games only twice in the last ten seasons – the Falcons in 2023 and Commanders (then-Football Team) in 2020 are the only two to conquer this feat
• The team with the best ATS +/- has only won the Super Bowl twice in the last ten years – the Chiefs in the 2023-24 season were the most recent to win the Super Bowl as the top-ranked team
• At least two of the five worst teams in ATS +/- have gone on to lose 11+ games in nine of the last ten seasons – 2022 was the first time we saw this trend broken
• A team ranked between 18th and 25th of the ATS +/- has made the Super Bowl in four of the last ten seasons – this has not happened since 2019
• A team ranked between 18th and 25th of the ATS +/- has made their respective conference championship in five of the last ten years – this has not hit since the 2019 season, though we have seen two teams ranked worse than 25th make their respective conference championship in the last four years
• Of the two teams with the worst ATS +/- each season, we’ve only seen two go on to make the playoffs – the 2023 Houston Texans and 2020 Washington Football Team
• Only nine teams who were in the bottom-five in ATS +/- have made the playoffs over the last ten years (2024 Broncos, 2023 Texans and Buccaneers, 2022 Jaguars and Seahawks, 2021 Bengals, 2020 Football Team, 2018 Colts, and 2017 Rams)
• At least half of the top ten teams in ATS +/- have missed the playoffs in six of the last ten years – last season was the first time this occurred under the new playoff format that sees seven teams from each conference make the postseason.

2025 NFL Predictions Based Off Power Ranking Trends

If you’re planning on betting Super Bowl futures, your apparent only real options include: the Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, Lions, Buccaneers, and Broncos. You might want to steer clear of Buffalo, though.

Trends from our power rankings also say one of the Bills, Ravens, or Chiefs will miss the playoffs. I know that’s hard to believe. It would be a very nice payout to hit, though. You can see your potential profit over in our NFL playoff odds. If you like that one, trends say one of the Eagles or 49ers will also miss the playoffs.

It’s also bad news for Cleveland. As the team ranked 32nd in our power rankings, the trend says they won’t win more than five games in 2025 – their NFL win total is set at 5.5.