NBA Finals MVP Odds – SGA the Runaway Favorite; Is There Value in the Rest of the Field?

• Shai Gilgeous Alexander is the overwhelming favorite to take home Finals MVP

• Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam have the next best odds

• See the NBA Finals Most Valuable Player odds and our breakdown of potential picks below

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The NBA Finals are set, and the books have newly-minted NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the overwhelming favorite to capture Finals MVP. He would be the first to capture both the league MVP and Finals MVP in the same year since LeBron James went back-to-back with the Miami Heat in 2012 and 2013.

The Thunder are the heavy favorites to capture their first franchise championship, so is it a foregone conclusion that SGA is the only choice? Let’s look at the odds for all the players and see if there is someone else in the field worth consideration.

2025 NBA Finals MVP Odds

Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton is the distant second-favorite at +700, followed by teammate Pascal Siakam (+1600) and OKC’s Jalen Williams (+3000).

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SGA vs the Field

The books have this priced right. Barring a major collapse, SGA’s body of work should have him in the driver’s seat to capture Finals MVP.

He has led the Thunder in scoring in 14 of 16 playoff games so far, and has been the scoring leader for the Thunder in nine straight, where he’s eclipsed the 30-point plateau seven times.

Past 10 NBA Finals MVP Winners

SGA’s 29.8 points per game average in the postseason is the highest average left standing, with Pascal Siakam and Gilgeous-Alexander’s teammate Jalen Williams the next closest, tied at 20.4 points per game.

He rolled to Western Conference Finals MVP averaging 31.4 points on 45.7% shooting, adding 8.2 assists, 5.2 rebounds and 1.8 steals per contest.

If the Thunder win the total — and at -700 odds, there’s a very good chance they will — there’s really no other OKC player that has taken over more than a game at any point in these playoffs.

Legit Challengers

The two best contenders to SGA are on the Pacers, in Tyrese Haliburton and Siakam, who was named Eastern Conference Finals MVP, averaging 24.8 points on 52.4% shooting from the field and 50% from 3-point range in six games against the Knicks.

However, anyone watching that series will tell you Siakam disappeared in games, as he alternated between sub-20 scoring and 30+ point games through the series.

Haliburton might have the all-around game to carry the Pacers to an upset – he’s that good. His battle, like Siakam’s is to bring the consistency every night.

After dropping an historic 32-point, 15-assist, 10-rebound, 0-turnover masterpiece in Game 4 vs New York, he mustered just eight points and six assists in Game 5, before ending the Knicks with 21 points and 13 assists in the clincher.

He’s had at least one game in each series where he’s scored 10 or fewer points.

Longshots to Consider

About the farthest down the line I would go is Chet Holmgren at +7500, as he could play a mismatch nightmare on offense, with Siakam and Myles Turner trying to guard him, while protecting the tin at the other end.

Even if Alex Caruso or Lu Dort rendered Haliburton a shell of himself, there’s likely no way a defensive effort holds up as MVP. The last time we saw that was the travesty of Andre Iguodala taking it home in 2015 — even though he “limited” LeBron James as Cleveland’s top scorer, rebounder and assister.

Now, if Aaron Nesmith were to completely blanket SGA, and shoot from three like he did in Game 1 vs New York over an entire series, then you’d have some discussion.

Still though, these teams are deep, and are led by one main character in OKC, and two main guys in Indiana. While the other players are vital to success, there’s a trusted hierarchy that’s gotten both teams here.

Bet accordingly.