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The Best Home Run Props to Bet Today – Target This +10305 HR Parlay on Thursday, May 15th

John Hyslop

By John Hyslop in MLB Baseball

Published:


May 14, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) celebrates after hitting a home run during the third inning against the Minnesota Twins at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images
  • There is a bone-dry MLB Slate waiting for us on Thursday, May 15
  • Still, even with a slate this small, we have to lock in and find three guys we know are going yard
  • See below for my +10305 home run parlay today (May 15th)

I don’t want to say I hate Thursdays because I don’t. I don’t hate anything really. But, I will say Thursdays are tough. The reason is that we go from Wednesday, when we have a million MLB games in the day and night, only to wake up on Thursday with barely any action. On top of that, we can look ahead one day to Friday when the board is littered with opportunity. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, it takes a special person to play this game we play, especially on a Thursday.

But even though it’s Thursday, our job is the same. We just have to find guys that we know are going yard and throw them all in one sweet, sweet parlay. Feels easy.

Please remember to play all three legs straight for a 1/4 unit as well as a 1/4 unit two-leg parlay.

MLB Home Run Parlay Today (May 15)

PickOdds
Gunnar Henderson HR+360
Freddie Freeman HR+360
Brent Rooker HR+360
Three-Leg Parlay+10305 (With Boost)

MLB odds as of May 15 at FanDuel. See the latest news on FanDuel Missouri.

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CLAIM OFFER

Thursday HR Parlay Leg #1 – Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run

We need a guy we can trust starting us off, and that guy is Gunnar Henderson. His exit velocity logs are perfect at the moment, and he is coming off a double-header yesterday, so we know he’s locked in. That alone is a great reason to play him at +360.

The thing is, it gets better because he absolutely demolishes Chris Paddack’s pitch mix.

PitchHenderson Hard Hit Rate vs RHP (L30 Days)Paddack Hard Hit Rate vs LHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball71%75%
Changeup67%35%

Everyone knows Chris Paddack is a piñata. I hate to be mean, but that guy gets smoked all the time. Plus, he’s not a daytime guy. Go look at his daytime numbers. It’s bad. We’re talking four home runs in just 22 innings of work to go along with 18 earned runs. Gunnar has already taken Paddack deep once in his career. I bet he does it again today. Feels right.

  • The Bet: Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+360) – FanDuel
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Thursday HR Parlay Leg #2 – Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run

Once Gunnar goes yard at noon, we’ll have a long wait since the Los Angeles Dodgers/Oakland A’s game doesn’t start until 10:10 PM ET. I’d recommend relaxing and just soaking in the last few hours we have of being poors. Once the Dodgers game starts, that life is all behind us. We had a great run.

Just look at what Freddie does to Osvaldo Bido’s offerings.

PitchFreeman Hard Hit Rate vs RHP (L30 Days)Bido ISO vs LHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball55%.368
Slider60%.600

It’s true that Freddie is slacking a little in the 100+ mph hit area recently. But we need to be a little fairer. He just had a 365-foot flyout the other night. Had he pulled that thing, some fan in the right-field bleachers would have been given a gift. Lucky for us, Bido is a pull guy so this whole thing just works. I’m thinking this dinger happens in the first inning. Feels right.

  • The Bet: Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+360) – FanDuel

Thursday HR Parlay Leg #3 – Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run

We’re going to need to close this thing out with a third trustworthy guy, and that guy is clearly Brent Rooker. I know the haters are going to say that everyone was on him yesterday, and he let everyone down. Did that happen? Yes. We all saw it. But today is a new day.

And if we can’t get excited about Rooker’s performance versus the pitch mix he’ll see tonight, then what can we get excited about?

PitchRooker Hard Hit Rate vs RHP (L30 Days)Sauer Hard Hit Rate vs RHB (2025)
Sinker50%25%
Cutter60%14%

There has been talk of openers and other weird pitching stuff in this game, but I don’t think it matters. At the end of the day, if it’s a bullpen game, then we should be fine. Over the last two weeks, only three MLB bullpens have been worse than the Dodgers’ in terms of barrel rate. Rooker came inches from taking Yamamoto deep last night, so it’s not like he’s scared of anyone. He’s the perfect guy to close this thing out for us. Feels easy.

  • The Bet: Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+360) – FanDuel
  • SBD 3-Man HR Strategy Results: -8.463 Units

John Hyslop

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.

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